A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
